The Coming Year

One can't help but feel a bit unsettled right now living across the Gulf from Iran. After all, the beginning of the New Year has brought nothing but hints of an impending war with Iran. Like all conflicts, clues of a confrontation emerge slowly but consistently, partly to gauge public opinion around different war strategies and partly to get the public used to the reality of what is about to happen. The signs seem to be everywhere...from the appointment of Admiral Fallon, a sailor in the US navy, as CentCom's new commandor and the parallel dispatch of additional Navy battle carrier groups to the Gulf; an Iraq strategy which adds more troops to Baghdad and greater focus on alleged Iranian arming of Iraqi Shia militias; reports of Israeli flight tests and scary-sounding tactical nuclear "bunker-busting" weapons.
On an academic level, the prospect of a new conflict in the region must be considered as well. From my own vantage point, I wonder what effect, if any, military conflict in Iran would have on the pace of development in Dubai? Geographically, there are many issues to consider, most notably the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the tip of the Arabian peninsula, where much of the region's exported oil passes through. Socially, there exists the question of the large Iranian population in Dubai and their ability to travel freely between Iran and the UAE. Politically one wonders the extent to which Dubai would be drawn into the conflict on a diplomatic level, despite the emirate's inclination towards political neutrality, at least in the public sphere.
I surely don't have a crystal ball and have no real idea what will end up happening with this issue as the year progresses. That said, the prospect of some sort of confrontation begs the questions I have been thinking about this week as ultimately they impact greatly the destiny of research in the Gulf right now.